A total of 141 tankers are dedicated to shuttling crude oil and petroleum products out of the Middle East Gulf, absorbing capacity through short voyages, offshore transfers and waiting time. BRS Shipbrokers’ tanker newsletter of 9 November 2026 shows how the system sustaining regional exports is also restricting vessel availability for mainstream trades. Together with energy companies’ fleet investments and shipowners’ earnings, the analysis helps explain the strength of tanker markets and the potential for supply to change as transport efficiency improves.

Gulf crude takes an extra step

Under the shuttle system, a tanker loads at an export terminal inside the Middle East Gulf, passes through the Strait of Hormuz and carries its cargo to the Gulf of Oman or India’s west coast. The oil is then transferred to another tanker for delivery to the final buyer. The arrangement allows the passage through higher-risk waters and the subsequent ocean voyage to be handled by different vessels, giving exporters additional options for moving their cargoes.

Kpler examined this network using data available as of 29 September 2026. Its analysis found that more than 70% of the crude crossing Hormuz in August changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman, with Fujairah and Sohar becoming key transfer locations. As loadings increased and transfer capacity came under pressure, some exporters also began using more direct voyages. The balance between shuttling and direct shipment can therefore shift with both security conditions and operational constraints.

The scheduling demands extend across both legs. Shuttle tankers must return to Gulf loading terminals, while the receiving vessels need to coordinate their arrival with cargoes emerging from the strait. A delay on either side can leave the other vessel waiting. Loading, transit and ship-to-ship transfers create additional points at which schedules must align, increasing the vessel time required to keep exports moving.

A smaller fleet available for mainstream trades

BRS estimates that very large crude carriers (VLCCs) account for 72% of the 141 tankers dedicated to shuttle operations. Large crude carriers therefore dominate a network built around relatively short voyages. Taking account of both shuttle deployment and the grey fleet, the broker calculates that the effective VLCC fleet serving mainstream, non-Russian and non-Iranian trades is 639 vessels, or 68% of the active fleet. That number is close to the size of the global VLCC fleet in 2015.

Commercial availability depends on each vessel’s circumstances. Its location, existing employment, ability to meet a loading window, insurance arrangements and owner’s willingness to accept a voyage all affect the options available to charterers. A VLCC committed to shuttle work continues to transport oil, but its return to competition for other cargoes depends on when that employment ends.

Fleet growth can consequently coexist with tight supply in individual markets. For a charterer seeking to load on a particular date, the relevant vessels are those able to reach the terminal, satisfy the customer’s requirements and perform the voyage. Shuttle employment fixes part of the fleet to particular tasks and regions, slowing its redistribution between cargoes.

Lower tonne-miles and strong owner earnings

Breakwave Advisors reported on 3 November that Middle Eastern VLCC tonne-miles remained 34% below 2025 levels despite exceptionally high freight rates. It attributed the market’s strength principally to constrained fleet productivity, reduced owner participation and the delays associated with offshore transfers and vessel turnaround.

These conditions make transport demand and available vessel capacity equally important to the market assessment. Recovering exports generate shipping requirements, while shuttling, waiting and prolonged commitments determine how many ships are needed to meet them. A tanker making short regional voyages may remain unavailable for other business for weeks. The resulting reduction in competing vessels can support freight rates even when measures of transport work are subdued.

Listed owners’ results show how strong freight markets are translating into earnings. DHT Holdings disclosed on 9 November that its spot VLCCs achieved average time-charter equivalent earnings of $167,100 per day in the third quarter. At the time of the announcement, 68% of its available fourth-quarter spot days had been booked at an average of $579,900 per day on a discharge-to-discharge basis. The company also identified logistical disruption and operational inefficiencies among the factors supporting the market.

For owners with vessels already in service, high-paying cargoes offer opportunities to generate cash, renew assets and arrange longer-term employment. Ships that can become operational promptly have particular commercial value. Acquisition timing, trading access and subsequent employment will influence how much of the current market’s earnings an owner can capture.

Energy companies seek greater control over transport

ADNOC Logistics & Services’ acquisitions, previously covered by Xinde Marine News, illustrate the importance energy companies place on access to ships. On 7 August, ADNOC L&S announced an investment of approximately $1.3 billion to acquire six VLCCs and five very large gas carriers (VLGCs). The six VLCCs and three of the VLGCs were purchased on the secondhand market. The company said the vessels would enter ADNOC service immediately upon delivery, supporting the group’s production, trading and export growth.

For an oil producer, a sales contract requires an executable loading, shipping and delivery plan. When external owners become more cautious about entering higher-risk waters, owned ships and vessels under long-term control can make export schedules more dependable. Their value is closely connected to customer commitments, inventory management and sales timing. Committing ships to an energy company’s own long-term requirements can also alter the supply available in the open charter market.

On the importing side, COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation is expanding its access to long-term crude transport capacity. Disclosures on 9 November outlined contracts signed by its Hainan subsidiary for 10 owned VLCCs, alongside plans to bareboat charter 14 VLCC newbuildings from six Chinese financial leasing companies. Its board also approved a separate long-term leasing and ship-finance cooperation project involving another 16 VLCC newbuildings. Further agreements and approvals could take the programme to as many as 40 vessels. The 10 owned ships are scheduled for delivery in 2029 and 2030.

These investments address different operating timelines. Buying existing vessels can add capacity relatively quickly, while newbuilding contracts and long-term leases secure ships for future customer requirements and fleet renewal. Tight current availability strengthens the incentive to control transport capacity. Returns on longer-term investment will also depend on trade patterns, fleet supply and operating efficiency when those ships enter service.

Faster shuttles can release capacity

Another finding in the BRS report has direct implications for future supply. After discharging, the average time shuttle tankers take to re-enter the Middle East Gulf, load and depart has fallen from 25 days in August to 14 days.

For a fleet repeatedly performing the same task, less time per operation increases the volume it can move over a given period. With cargo volumes unchanged, fewer vessel-days are required. Further improvements in transfer coordination and offshore waiting times could allow ships to return to the loading market earlier. Effective supply can therefore increase through faster use of the existing fleet.

Freight markets are already adjusting. In its Week 45 tanker monitor, published on 10 November, Signal reported weekly earnings declines across all 16 dirty tanker route benchmarks it tracks. US Gulf–China VLCC earnings on TD22 fell 16.2% against the previous week’s reference, while Middle East Gulf–China earnings on TD3C declined 4.8%. The correction was more pronounced in the Atlantic.

Capacity absorbed by the transport network continues to support the market, while regional cargo demand, ballast arrivals and chartering activity are changing the balance for new fixtures. Owners that have already secured high-paying employment can continue earning contracted revenue. Ships coming back into the market face the next round of competition for cargoes, so reported quarterly earnings and newly negotiated freight rates can respond at different speeds.

A lasting network with a changing call on ships

BRS expects exporters may retain parts of their shuttle networks over the medium to longer term even if tensions ease, preserving an option against future disruption. Greater willingness among owners to transit Hormuz directly would, however, reduce the requirement for shuttle services.

Exporters can retain transfer locations, commercial relationships and scheduling capabilities while adjusting the number of vessels deployed. More direct shipments and faster shuttle operations could release some ships into longer-haul trades. Renewed security disruption could require additional shuttle capacity. The network’s continued existence would influence the market, with its effect on freight depending on how many vessels it employs and for how long.

During an interview with Xinde Marine News at Global Maritime Forum 2026, International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said Hormuz was unsafe at the time and ships should not transit the strait. He also stressed that seafarers should not become bargaining chips in geopolitical conflict. For shipping companies, security conditions shape vessel participation, insurance terms and the ability to sustain voyages. The market’s risk premium reflects real dangers faced by ships and their crews.

The next phase of the tanker market will reflect both improving transport productivity and new vessel deliveries. Shorter shuttle cycles, smoother transfers and broader owner participation could increase the work the existing fleet can perform. Purchases, newbuilding orders and long-term charters agreed during the high-earnings period will also move into execution. Their returns will depend on how quickly vessels complete each task, when they become available for new employment and the cargo demand awaiting additional ships.