China expects its gross ocean product to exceed RMB 13 trillion by 2030, up from RMB 11 trillion in 2025. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) places shipbuilding, offshore engineering, maritime transport and marine energy among its priorities, while setting out plans for new high-grade waterways, automated port berths and large-scale offshore wind development. For the global maritime industry, the implications extend beyond newbuilding demand to shipyard capacity, specialist vessels, marine equipment and the development of China's wider maritime supply chain.

China is setting out a broader industrial agenda for its maritime sector, with shipbuilding and offshore engineering expected to remain central to the country's efforts to expand its marine economy over the next five years.

At a series of press conferences held by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on November 3 and 4, officials outlined plans to strengthen marine equipment manufacturing, improve maritime transport infrastructure, develop offshore energy resources and expand China's capabilities in deep-sea engineering.

The headline economic target is for China's gross ocean product to exceed RMB 13 trillion (approximately US$1.9 trillion) by 2030, compared with RMB 11.018 trillion in 2025. The latter represented 7.9% of China's GDP, with annual growth of 5.5%.

The target provides an indication of the scale of China's maritime ambitions, but the more significant development for the shipping industry lies in how that growth is expected to be achieved. Rather than relying solely on traditional marine industries, the plan links shipbuilding and offshore engineering with energy development, port infrastructure, advanced manufacturing and technological innovation.

Shipbuilding remains a central pillar, with a stronger emphasis on high-end capabilities

China enters the 15th Five-Year Plan period with an established position in the global shipbuilding market.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), Chinese shipyards completed 53.69 million deadweight tonnes (dwt) of vessels in 2025, accounting for 56.1% of global output. New orders reached 107.82 million dwt, representing 69% of the global total, while the orderbook stood at 274.42 million dwt, or 66.8% of the global market. China maintained its leading position across all three indicators for the 16th consecutive year.

 

These figures demonstrate the scale of China's existing shipbuilding industry. However, the next stage of development will involve more than increasing the number of vessels delivered.

The NDRC has identified the consolidation and upgrading of marine equipment manufacturing as a priority, alongside improvements in maritime transport competitiveness. Its stated objectives include addressing weaknesses in high-end instruments, key materials and foundational software, while strengthening research and engineering capabilities.

For shipyards, this points towards continued development across several segments: large container ships, LNG carriers, oil tankers, bulk carriers, car carriers, offshore support vessels and specialised engineering ships.

It also places greater emphasis on the supporting industrial base, including marine engines, propulsion systems, automation, navigation equipment, communications and energy-management technologies.

China's existing strength in commercial shipbuilding provides a substantial manufacturing foundation. The more difficult task will be to translate that scale into greater capabilities in technically demanding products and equipment, where performance, reliability, certification and after-sales support are as important as construction cost.

A large orderbook brings both opportunities and capacity challenges

The market environment also matters.

The global shipbuilding industry has experienced several years of strong contracting, with container ships accounting for a substantial proportion of recent orders. Chinese yards have captured a particularly large share of this demand.

However, a large orderbook does not automatically translate into an equally strong market in the future.

BIMCO reported in October 2026 that the global shipyard orderbook had reached 203.2 million compensated gross tonnes (cgt) as of September 1, up 13% year on year. Chinese shipyards held approximately 64% of the total. The association also warned that scheduled deliveries would require a significant increase in production capacity, particularly at Chinese yards.

This creates two related challenges.

First, shipyards must manage an increasingly demanding delivery schedule. Expanding production capacity requires investment in docks, workshops, equipment, skilled labour and supply-chain coordination. Delays in any of these areas can affect contractual delivery schedules and project profitability.

Second, the current orderbook reflects investment decisions made under earlier freight-rate, asset-price and financing conditions. By the time many of these vessels enter service, market conditions may have changed.

For shipowners, the commercial case for newbuildings will continue to depend on expected freight earnings, vessel operating costs, financing conditions, regulatory requirements and the age profile of existing fleets.

This is particularly relevant to container shipping, where the substantial volume of new tonnage scheduled for delivery in the coming years could alter fleet supply and competitive dynamics. Similar considerations apply to tankers and dry bulk carriers, although their demand drivers and trading patterns differ.

The 15th Five-Year Plan therefore provides a long-term industrial framework, but it should not be interpreted as a guarantee of sustained growth in commercial shipbuilding orders.

Offshore engineering moves further into the spotlight

Beyond conventional shipbuilding, offshore engineering is another area receiving considerable attention.

China's policy programme identifies offshore wind, deepwater oil and gas, natural gas hydrates and deep-sea mineral resources as areas for further development. These activities require specialised vessels, offshore structures, subsea equipment and engineering services, creating demand that is distinct from the conventional merchant shipping market.

One of the most measurable targets concerns offshore wind.

China aims to bring cumulative grid-connected offshore wind capacity to more than 100 million kW (100 GW) by 2030. The development programme covers the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea, with an increasing focus on deeper waters.

 

Image courtesy: Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Co., Ltd

The target has implications for a broad range of maritime equipment and vessel types.

These include:

Wind turbine installation vessels (WTIVs): specialised jack-up or floating vessels used to install offshore turbines and foundations.

Service operation vessels (SOVs): vessels supporting technicians and maintenance operations at offshore wind farms.

Cable-laying vessels: used to install subsea export and inter-array cables.

Offshore construction vessels: supporting foundation installation, lifting and other marine engineering work.

Offshore support vessels: providing transportation, logistics and operational assistance.

China already has a substantial domestic offshore wind industry and an established manufacturing base for turbines, foundations, cables and related equipment.

The Global Wind Energy Council reported that China commissioned 6.6 GW of new offshore wind capacity in 2025, taking its cumulative installed capacity to 48.4 GW by year-end. This represented more than half of the global total.

Reaching 100 GW would therefore require another substantial expansion over the remainder of the decade.

For shipbuilders and offshore contractors, the opportunity is not limited to constructing more installation vessels. It also involves developing equipment suited to deeper water, harsher operating environments and increasingly complex offshore projects.

The economics, however, will depend on the pace of project approvals, electricity pricing, grid connections, construction costs and the availability of financing. Offshore wind development is capital-intensive, and an ambitious capacity target does not necessarily translate into an immediate order pipeline for every category of vessel.

Deepwater oil and gas and subsea engineering

The NDRC has also identified deepwater and ultra-deepwater oil and gas development, natural gas hydrate extraction and deep-sea mineral exploration as areas requiring further technological progress.

These activities create demand for a different class of offshore assets, including floating production storage and offloading units (FPSOs), semi-submersible drilling rigs, offshore support vessels, subsea construction vessels and remotely operated vehicles (ROVs).

Source: 中国海洋石油集团有限公司

China's offshore engineering industry has developed capabilities in the construction of offshore platforms, floating production facilities and specialised vessels. Companies such as CIMC Raffles, China Merchants Industry and Offshore Oil Engineering Co. (COOEC) operate in different parts of this market.

The next phase will test their ability to support more technically demanding projects, particularly as offshore developments move into deeper waters.

Deep-sea mineral development is a longer-term and less certain proposition. Commercial viability, subsea collection and transportation technology, environmental assessment and international regulatory arrangements remain important constraints. The inclusion of deep-sea resources in the national development agenda should therefore be understood as a commitment to technological development and exploration, rather than evidence of an established commercial mining market.

Ports and waterways: expanding the infrastructure behind maritime growth

The industrial strategy is accompanied by a substantial programme of transport infrastructure development.

At the November 4 press conference, Xia Xin, director of the NDRC's Department of Infrastructure Development, outlined plans for the construction of approximately 2,500 km of new high-grade national waterways and more than 100 automated berths at terminals capable of handling vessels of 10,000 tonnes or above during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

The stated objective is to establish a modern water transport system.

The programme covers both coastal and inland transport infrastructure.

On the coastal side, China intends to strengthen the capabilities of its major port clusters around the Bohai Rim, Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The plan also includes developing port clusters along the southeast coast and around the Beibu Gulf.

For international shipping, these regions serve different but interconnected functions.

The Yangtze River Delta is a major manufacturing, export and shipping centre, with Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan among its principal gateways. The Greater Bay Area links manufacturing and trade in southern China with major international shipping routes. The Bohai Rim serves industrial centres and energy and bulk cargo flows in northern China.

The development of these port clusters is intended to improve not only cargo-handling capacity but also their ability to support industrial activity, shipping services and wider resource allocation.

Automation is another important element.

More than 100 additional automated berths would expand the application of remote-controlled equipment, automated guided vehicles, intelligent terminal operating systems and digital port management.

For equipment manufacturers and technology providers, this could create opportunities in quay cranes, yard cranes, automated transport systems, terminal software and integrated logistics platforms.

However, the distinction between berths and terminals is important: the target refers to more than 100 automated berths, not necessarily 100 new automated ports or container terminals.

Inland waterways and the Three Gorges shipping corridor

The 2,500 km waterway target is equally relevant to China's inland shipping industry.

The Yangtze River is one of the country's most important inland transport corridors, linking major industrial and manufacturing regions with coastal ports. Improving its navigability can support the movement of bulk commodities, industrial materials and containers between inland provinces and international trade gateways.

The NDRC has specifically identified improving navigation capacity along the Yangtze River mainline, addressing bottlenecks in key interprovincial waterways and developing a new Three Gorges shipping corridor as major tasks.

 

Source: State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC)

Three Gorges Double-Line Five-Stage Ship Locks

For shipowners and operators, improvements in waterway infrastructure could support larger vessels, more efficient cargo movements and stronger connections between inland ports and coastal shipping networks.

They could also influence demand for inland vessels, river-sea transport ships, barges and vessels designed for intermodal operations.

The commercial impact will depend on the actual location and scale of individual projects, navigational depth, lock capacity and the compatibility of infrastructure across provincial boundaries.

The plan's reference to the Three Gorges shipping corridor is particularly significant because the existing ship locks form a major operational constraint on cargo movements along the upper and middle Yangtze. The development of additional shipping capacity could change the economics and organisation of inland waterway transport.

From shipbuilding to shipping services: Shanghai's international role

The infrastructure programme also connects with a broader objective: strengthening China's position in international shipping services.

The NDRC has identified accelerating the development of Shanghai as a world-class international shipping centre, alongside improving the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area port clusters.

This is a wider ambition than increasing port throughput.

A competitive international shipping centre requires a combination of port infrastructure and professional services, including ship finance, marine insurance, maritime law, arbitration, shipbroking, ship management, chartering and maritime information services.

 

Shanghai already has a major position in global container shipping and port operations. However, strengthening its international shipping-centre role also involves attracting more international maritime transactions and professional service providers.

This is relevant to shipowners and shipbuilders because the location and availability of finance, insurance, legal services and technical expertise influence where vessels are ordered, financed, registered and managed.

The development of Shanghai as an international shipping centre also needs to be considered alongside competition from established maritime service hubs such as London, Singapore and Hong Kong.

The challenge is not simply to expand physical infrastructure, but to deepen the range and international reach of services available to shipowners and other maritime businesses.

Technology, finance and the transition to cleaner shipping

Another feature of the 15th Five-Year Plan is the emphasis on connecting technological innovation with industrial development.

The NDRC has highlighted the need to address weaknesses in high-end marine instruments, key materials and foundational software, while strengthening national laboratories, engineering centres and industry-focused research platforms.

For the maritime industry, these priorities have practical implications.

The competitiveness of a shipbuilding industry increasingly depends on its ability to integrate advanced propulsion systems, automation, navigation equipment, digital technologies and environmental solutions into commercial vessels.

China's shipyards are already building ships powered by LNG, methanol and other alternative fuels. The next stage will involve further development of ammonia-fuel technologies, battery-electric propulsion for suitable vessel segments, wind-assisted propulsion and energy-efficiency systems.

The pace of adoption will depend on fuel availability, infrastructure investment, safety requirements and the commercial economics of individual vessel types.

International regulation will also remain a major variable. The IMO's work on its proposed Net-Zero Framework, including fuel greenhouse gas intensity requirements and an economic mechanism, will influence future shipowners' decisions on newbuildings and retrofits. As of November 5, 2026, the framework has not been formally adopted, following the postponement of the October 2025 adoption process.

Financing is another part of the government's approach.

The NDRC has called for better coordination of government investment, market-based allocation of marine resources and the development of blue finance. It also intends to update the investment and financing catalogue for marine industries and encourage private capital to participate.

For capital-intensive businesses such as offshore wind, shipbuilding and deepwater engineering, access to long-term financing is particularly important.

Shipowners typically evaluate newbuilding investments against expected charter income, second-hand vessel values, operating expenses, interest rates and the cost of complying with future environmental regulations. Offshore projects face additional considerations, including construction risk, electricity prices, grid availability and long-term revenue arrangements.

Policy support can help facilitate investment, but it cannot eliminate the underlying commercial risks.

What the plan means for the global maritime market

China's maritime development programme has implications beyond its domestic shipping and shipbuilding industries.

Its position as the world's largest shipbuilding nation means that changes in Chinese industrial policy, production capacity and investment priorities can influence global vessel supply.

The effects are likely to emerge across several areas.

First, commercial shipbuilding. Chinese yards are expected to remain major suppliers of tankers, bulk carriers, container ships and car carriers. Their existing orderbooks provide considerable visibility over production in the coming years, although the pace of future contracting will depend on global trade and fleet replacement demand.

Second, specialised vessels and offshore engineering. Offshore wind, deepwater oil and gas development and marine resource exploration could support demand for installation vessels, cable-laying vessels, offshore support vessels and subsea engineering equipment. These markets are more dependent on individual project schedules and investment decisions than conventional merchant shipping.

Third, port equipment and maritime infrastructure. The expansion of automated berths and high-grade waterways could strengthen demand for port machinery, terminal automation, dredging, navigation systems and inland shipping equipment. Chinese suppliers may also seek opportunities in overseas port and infrastructure projects.

Fourth, maritime technology and alternative fuels. Continued investment in propulsion systems, energy efficiency, automation and marine electronics could strengthen China's position across the wider maritime equipment supply chain.

There is also an international trade dimension.

China's shipbuilding industry is closely connected to its manufacturing and export economy. The country's major coastal ports handle large volumes of manufactured goods, energy imports and industrial raw materials. As trade patterns change, so do requirements for vessel capacity, port infrastructure and logistics services.

The expansion of Chinese automobile exports, for example, has already increased demand for vehicle carriers and associated maritime logistics capacity. Meanwhile, energy security and changing patterns of commodity trade continue to influence tanker and gas carrier requirements.

However, the relationship between industrial expansion and vessel demand is not automatic. A larger manufacturing base does not necessarily mean a proportional increase in ship orders. Cargo volumes, transport distances, vessel productivity, trade restrictions and the deployment strategies of international shipowners all matter.

Geopolitical developments and trade policies will also influence the outlook. Changes in tariffs, sanctions, shipping restrictions and supply-chain diversification could alter trade routes and investment decisions, even as China's shipyards remain important suppliers to international shipowners.

The next five years: from manufacturing scale to industrial depth

China's RMB 13 trillion maritime economy target provides a broad measure of the country's ambitions for 2030. More important for the maritime industry, however, is the combination of specific industrial and infrastructure targets behind it.

The country intends to strengthen its established shipbuilding and marine equipment manufacturing base, expand offshore energy development, improve port and inland waterway infrastructure, and build greater technological capabilities in deep-sea engineering.

These objectives are interconnected, but their commercial outcomes will differ.

Commercial shipbuilding will remain closely linked to the global fleet cycle, freight markets and shipowners' investment decisions. Offshore engineering will depend on the approval and financing of energy and infrastructure projects. Port automation and waterway development will be shaped by public investment, cargo demand and the economic returns of individual projects.

The key question is therefore not simply whether China's marine economy can exceed RMB 13 trillion by 2030, but how much of that growth will translate into new commercial opportunities for shipbuilders, shipowners, equipment manufacturers and maritime service providers.

Over the next five years, several developments will deserve particular attention: the delivery capacity of Chinese shipyards as their orderbooks expand; the actual pace of offshore wind and deepwater project development; the allocation of investment to automated ports and inland waterways; the availability of long-term financing; and the evolution of international shipping regulations and trade patterns.

China's next phase of maritime development will be measured not only by how many ships it builds or how much cargo its ports handle, but also by the range of complex marine equipment it can deliver, the efficiency of its maritime transport network and the extent to which its domestic industrial capabilities translate into internationally competitive products and services.