Four Asia-Europe sailings may well be cancelled to keep slot demand in line with supply as the peak season gathers steam this year, according SeaIntel's Sunday Spotlight analysis.
Asia-North Europe will see a significant capacity increase of 9.2 per cent year on year in June and July, offset by 1.7 per cent growth in the Asia-Med trade, said the newsletter.
"If a more modest capacity growth of five per cent should be targeted, this can be achieved through the blanking of four average-sized sailings over the nine-week period, which is well within the capability of carriers, without too much disruption," said the Copenhagen-based research house.
It said the two Asia-Europe trade lanes work to balance each other out, as years with contraction in one trade lane is often matched with growth in the other.
Said SeaIntel CEO Alan Murphy: "The Asia-Europe trade is seeing a vast amount of newbuildings being delivered in 2018, but the carriers have managed to balance Asia-Europe supply to a reasonable degree.
"The carriers should be able to blank sailings to match a weak demand environment on Asia-Europe over the peak season, while also having enough capacity buffer if demand growth is stronger than expected." he said.
Sources:HKSG Group
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