克里米亚大桥是一座公路及铁路两用桥梁，全长19公里，横跨刻赤海峡。（路透社）
俄罗斯在刻赤海峡扣押了乌克兰三艘海军船舰及20余名人员，两国关系顿时剑拔弩张。这场冲突因何而起？俄乌两国有何矛盾恩怨？让我们从以下几点一探究竟。
①刻赤海峡在哪里？
刻赤海峡（Kerch Strait）是连接黑海和亚速海的唯一航道。刻赤海峡东岸是俄罗斯本土，西侧是2014年被俄罗斯并吞的克里米亚半岛。
红色方框所示位置为刻赤海峡。（法新社）
②发生什么事？
11月25日，俄罗斯海军拒绝让三艘乌克兰海军船舰通过刻赤海峡。乌克兰官方说，三艘军舰要从黑海之滨的敖德萨转移到亚速海的马里乌波尔驻防，事前已向俄方通报移防行动。
俄罗斯联邦安全局则指乌克兰船舰非法进入俄罗斯领海，要求乌克兰船舰停止前进，但乌方拒绝。
在争执过程中，俄罗斯一边防船与乌克兰海军拖船发生撞击，造成后者严重损毁。俄方过后以非法入境罪名扣押了乌克兰三艘船舰及人员，而乌克兰指冲突造成六名乌克兰海军士兵受伤。
俄罗斯联邦安全局的视频截图显示被指非法进入俄罗斯领海的乌克兰船舰。（路透社）
③刻赤海峡为何至关重要？
亚速海是俄乌两国共同拥有的一片封闭海域，而刻赤海峡是通往乌克兰冶金工业重镇马里乌波尔和别尔江斯克的必经之路。
苏联1991年解体后，俄乌两国沿用了苏联时期两国之间的行政边界，但亚速海和刻赤海峡的海上边界问题一直没有得到彻底解决。
2014年，俄罗斯并吞克里米亚半岛后，刻赤海峡两岸均被俄罗斯掌控，这使乌克兰的船运业陷入困境。
2018年5月，连接俄罗斯本土同克里米亚半岛的克里米亚大桥（旧称刻赤海峡大桥）通车之后，双方在亚速海和刻赤海峡问题上的矛盾再次激化。
俄罗斯战机飞越克里米亚大桥上空。（路透社）
④航海权之争
俄罗斯和乌克兰在1990年代先后加入联合国海洋法公约。乌克兰指该国拥有在刻赤海峡和亚速海自由航行的权利，俄罗斯则强调本国领海权。
俄乌双方还签署过在刻赤海峡与亚速海自由航行的协议。乌克兰强调该协议的有效性，而俄罗斯从未对这一协议提出质疑。
被俄方扣押的两艘乌克兰小型装甲舰和一艘拖船，停靠在刻赤港口。（路透社）
⑤乌克兰实施战时状态
刻赤海峡扣船事件发生后，乌克兰宣布实施战时状态。这是俄乌交恶以来，乌克兰首次采取这一措施。
乌克兰强调，实施战时状态是为了维护国家独立主权和领土完整，不是要向谁宣战。这一戒严令的有效期初步定为30天。
乌克兰总统波罗申科11月26日在国会召开紧急会议，签署戒严令并获国会表决通过。（法新社）
⑥刻赤冲突是克里米亚危机的延续
刻赤海峡冲突使俄乌关系进一步恶化。乌克兰前总统亚努克维奇被推翻后，俄罗斯以一次全民公投的结果并吞了克里米亚。该公投之所以引发争议，是因为公投是在俄罗斯军方监督下临时举行的。
克里米亚半岛主权之争已被多次诉诸国际法庭，其中大部分诉案都是由乌克兰发起。
⑦会否爆发大规模冲突？
分析人士认为，俄乌双方由此爆发大规模冲突的可能性不大。
分析人士指出，由于两国军力差距巨大，乌克兰很难采取以牙还牙的报复行动，更大可能是通过外交渠道呼吁各方对俄进行更严厉的制裁。
而俄罗斯实际控制着克里米亚且拥有克里米亚大桥，北约等外部势力军事威胁与干预料也难收成效。
未来双方很可能会在国际社会斡旋下首先解决船只归还、人员释放和赔偿损失等问题，相互指责对方违规的口水战也还将持续一段时间，而亚速海和刻赤海峡归属问题很难在短期内得到解决。
根据伦敦保赔协会给信德海事网发来的通函，当地通代给出如下建议：
1. At the present time there are no serious restrictions on the operation of the state services and bodies.
2. There are no restrictions on foreign seafarers’ access to public areas.
3. Whilst Russian seafarers on board vessels calling at Ukraine will not be subject to discrimination and persecution, in line with existing regulations Immigration Authorities may investigate further and/or bring charges against Russian seafarers who have previously visited Crimean ports.
4. Foreign vessels heading to Ukrainian ports on the Azov Sea, such as Mariupol and Berdyansk, may be detained in the Kerch Strait for inspection and search. It is thought unlikely that this will be the case if the vessels are heading to Russian Ports.
详情：Notification: Imposition of Martial Law in Ukraine：update 27.11.2018
These days we are getting numerous questions from both the P&I Clubs and their Members concerning imposition of Martial Law in Ukraine. The experience tells me that we are going to get even more and that many various aspects of the current situation will be of interest. That impels me to share some of my views on the status quo in Ukraine with our Principals and friends and to try to answer the most frequently asked questions.
First of all, the Martial Law was not declared on all the territory of Ukraine, but just in some Regions having the common border with Russia, as well as on coastline territories (map is attached to this message). At the moment no serious restrictions in the operation of the state services and bodies can be observed. Public areas/places are freely accessible so foreign seamen can feel rather comfortable ashore.
All Ukrainian ports, Mariupol and Berdyansk including, are working normally. No any additional restrictions relating to Martial Law have been introduced in the ports.
Seafarers of Russian nationality on board of foreign ships calling at the Ukrainian ports will not be subject to discrimination and persecution. Neither will Ukrainian crew of the foreign ships in Russian ports, at least I believe so. However, it should be kept in mind that Immigration Authorities may bring an accusation against those seafarers who visited Crimean ports. It’s an old restriction which I think reasonable to remind you about.
On of the worst aspects of the matter is that foreign vessels heading to the Ukrainian ports on the Azov Sea (such as Mariupol and Berdyansk) may be detained in the Kerch Strait for inspection and search. I cannot vouch for Russian Authorities and in view of the fact that prior to the recent incident there was a sad practice of detaining the ships for up to 10 days now the situation is very likely to aggravate. Kerch Channel Authorities are in a habit of inventing various reasons for delaying the ships passing through the channel: adverse weather conditions which do not allow inspectors to board the vessel, are often used as a pretext of not allowing the passage. They decide on the acceptable weather conditions for getting to the Roads and inspect the ships in accordance with their own standards and requirements, sometimes mysterious to anyone else. We presume that foreign vessels heading through the Kerch Strait to the Russian ports on the Azov Sea will have no problems at that and will not be delayed.
Kind regards, Igor Cherezov Dias Marine Consulting PC
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