In the first half of 2025, China’s dominance in global shipbuilding showed signs of pressure, as geopolitical headwinds and a cyclical market correction took their toll.
According to BIMCO, China’s global share of new shipbuilding orders (by CGT) dropped from 72% in H2 2024 to 52% in H1 2025 — a 20-point plunge. The upcoming USTR port fees, which will levy significant charges on Chinese-built ships calling at US ports from October 2025, are widely believed to be a key contributor to this decline.
Meanwhile, Clarksons Research reports that China accounted for 56.2% of global orders by deadweight tonnage (DWT) in H1 2025 — still the highest globally, but lower than its 75% share in the same period last year.
This coincides with a 54% YoY drop in global newbuilding activity by CGT (Compensated Gross Tonnage), as Clarksons notes. LNG carriers and car carriers（RORO） saw the steepest declines, while only container ships and cruise ships showed growth.
Newbuilding price indices are also sliding. Clarksons’ index fell to 187.11 points in June, with oil tanker prices down nearly 5% YTD.
Still, China retains its edge in green-fueled ship orders, holding a 61.8% share in that segment, per Clarksons — reinforcing its strength in dual-fuel, LNG, and methanol-ready designs.
Long-term outlook: While BIMCO warns that competition from low-cost builders like Vietnam and the Philippines could intensify, both BIMCO and Clarksons agree that South Korea and Japan face labor shortages and cost constraints that limit their expansion potential.
Bottom line: Policy shocks and market cooling have compressed China’s market share, but its position as the world's leading shipbuilder remains solid — for now.
by Xinde Marine News Chen Yang
The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Xinde Marine News.
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