“So far this year, only 10 container ships have been recycled. This extends a pattern of low recycling activity seen since 2021 as many ships have continued trading beyond their usual recycling age. As a result, we estimate that a recycling overhang of minimum 500 ships and 1.8 million TEU now exists,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
The share of ships 20-years-old or older has increased from 16% at the beginning of 2020 to currently 24%. These ships will make up the bulk of future recycling, and the share of older ships has not been higher since the early 1970s.
Applying historical recycling patterns, we have calculated an average lifecycle for each size segment of the fleet and compared it to the current fleet. For instance, during the period from 2000 to 2019 20% of ships were recycled before the age of 20 and 53% of ships were recycled before turning 25 years old.
“Using the average recycling pattern during 2000-2019, we estimate that the current minimum recycling overhang is 500 ships and 1.8 million TEU. Prior to the financial crisis a strong market resulted in low recycling, but a weaker market and more recycling dominated from 2009 onwards. Combined, the 2000-2019 period should therefore be a good reflection of recycling during average market conditions,” says Rasmussen.
Given the currently very large order book, the threat of ship demand erosion if ships return to normal Suez Canal routings and regulatory requirements to improve ship efficiency, recycling may, however, end higher than our minimum estimate.
We have therefore used the earlier recycling of ships during the weaker market conditions of the 2010s to estimate the current maximum recycling overhang, resulting in a maximum overhang estimate of 850 ships and 3.1m TEU.
The 1.8-3.1 million TEU may take years to recycle as the highest ever annual recycling was achieved in 2016 when 185 ships and 0.6 million TEU were recycled.
“Future recycling is very difficult to estimate accurately. However, our estimates indicate an overhang of 6-10% of currently trading ships equal to 33-55% of ships older than 20 years. It is worth noting that the estimated overhang is larger than the order book for all ship segments smaller than 8,000 TEU. This may indicate that fleet growth in the coming years will be driven exclusively by the larger ships which in turn could drive further cascading of larger ships into routes where smaller ships are currently deployed,” says Rasmussen.
source: BIMCO
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