With the Hong Kong Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships entering into force this week, BIMCO now estimates that up to 16,000 ships — totaling 700 million DWT — could be recycled over the next 10 years. That’s twice the number of ships and nearly three times the tonnage recycled in the past decade.
Key insights from BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen:
Ships built in the 2000s will dominate future recycling, yet only 3% of these vessels have been dismantled so far.
Bulkers, tankers, and container ships will account for 91% of DWT recycled, but only 53% of ship count — general cargo and fishing vessels also play a major role.
South Asia — especially Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan — remains the dominant recycling hub, handling 86% of total DWT recycled since 2015.
If projections hold, annual recycled tonnage could surpass 2012’s record levels by 2027.
The message is clear: Green, compliant recycling capacity must scale up fast to meet rising demand and ensure alignment with stricter environmental standards.
Whether market strength slows the pace, or decarbonization accelerates it, one thing is certain — the next decade will redefine ship recycling.
by Xinde Marine News Chen Yang
The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Xinde Marine News.
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