The long-awaited massive 650kbd Dangote refinery in Nigeria was inagurated in late May, following years of delays caused by logistical problems and pandemic related disruptions. The refinery is expected to begin operations this summer, although industry experts warn that commisioning is a very complicated process, not least due to the sheer size of the refinery and so is likely to take additional time. Energy Aspects believes there is a good chance that Dangote will reach 50-70% of operational runs in 2024, whilst the IEA assumes the refinery to be fully operational by mid-2024. An increase in crude deliveries into Lekki will signal the start of operations; however, so far this has not been witnessed. Similarly, we are yet to see any major decline in Nigerian seaborne crude exports.
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