With the refined products price cap now in place for just over a month, the changes in trade flows as a result are stark. Many longer haul voyages are yet to be completed, but this only points to a clear trend of Russia being forced to divert cargoes to distant markets in order to maintain export volumes.
Until February, Europe had remained Russia’s primary market for refined product exports; however, in the space of a month, a major pivot has been observed. Unsurprisingly, exports to Europe have dropped to almost nothing, with Africa and East of Suez emerging as Russia’s largest buyers, followed by non-EU/exempt markets in the Mediterranean (i.e. Turkey). Surprisingly, less cargo than expected is destined for Latin America, whilst a large portion remains unaccounted for, suggesting these volumes are in transit to longer haul markets.
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