In just a couple of days from now, the EU ban on imports of Russian crude will come into effect. Still, huge uncertainty remains about the impact of sanctions and the price cap itself. The cap is designed to give additional bargaining power to buyers in third countries with minimal disruptions to crude flows. However, Russia has repeatedly stated (prior to the announced cap of $60/bbl) that it will not sell its crude under these conditions and is reportedly seeking to boost the recognition of Russian maritime cargo insurance. As such, the next few weeks will be critical, revealing how strong Russian determination not to sell its barrels under an arguably reasonable price cap level is, the appetite for Russian crude in third countries as well as the potential capacity of the tanker fleet willing to service price capped and/or non-price-capped exports of Russian barrels.
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