Dramatic Changes
This year's events have been dominated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the resulting international sanctions, and the far-reaching consequences for the global economy. For tankers, once the European oil embargo on Russian oil comes into effect, global seaborne flows will be completely redefined. For now, however, Russia still exports the vast majority of its crude in the West to Europe. Yet, it is already becoming apparent that more crude is heading East, primarily to India and China. The picture is different for Russian clean products, which continue to flow to Europe, with no apparent shift in trade patterns seen to date, except for the halt in shipments to the US. We are also seeing Europe increasing its intake of both crude and products from alternative sources. Considerably more North Sea barrels are being retained within the European market, whilst crude imports from the US, West Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East are also rising. Likewise, there is more intra-European clean products trade, while product imports from the US, the Middle East and India are similarly on the up.
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