Supply Upside?
The decision by OPEC+ to raise output by another 400kbd in March came as little surprise to the oil market, which had largely priced in further modest output increases from the group. It took ministers just 16 minutes to sign off on the 400kbd uplift, yet even with this, the fact remains that the wider OPEC+ group pumped 790kbd below target in December. Yet despite these shortcomings, the International Energy Agency (IEA) calculates that if OPEC+ maintains its current strategy through this year, then oil supply is primed for a 6.2mbd increase in 2022, which if delivered, would represent the largest ever annual increase in oil supply.
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