"We assume no impact from the OPEC+ decision on either Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan," said Paul Sheldon from S&P Global Platts Analytics, highlighting the fact neither country voluntarily reduced production during the the deal started in 2017 and both producers are unlikely to cut under the new agreement.
However, Kazakhstan, which has posted impressive output growth over the past few years thanks to ramping up production at its major Kashagan field, may see output growth slow because Kashagan's phase one is already close to plateauing at current production levels.
Analysts said Kazakhstan's output will be up 1% at best, with other large projects -- Tengiz and Karachaganak -- expected to see steady output until the big Tengiz expansion in 2022.
In the next decade, the Tengiz project was expected to bring an additional 12 million mt/year, or around 240,986 b/d, of oil production on stream, raising annual output there to around 39 million mt.
Under the latest OPEC+ agreement, Kazakhstan has agreed to cut output by 40,000 b/d from a reference figure of 1.9 million b/d, OPEC said. Analysts see other factors as likely to hold more sway on output volumes in 2019, however.
"If output is adjusted anywhere it will not be because of the OPEC+ decisions, but more so likely due to individual field issues, lower oil prices, or other technical issues that would be conveniently parlayed in to adherence to a cut," said Barclays head of energy markets research, Michael Cohen.
Decline rates beyond the three major projects will also impact production volumes in Kazakhstan next year and act as a drag on growth.
"Due to the maturity of fields, production will continue to decline in the Aktobe and Kyzylorda regions, which account for around 14% of Kazakh production," said Akbar Tukayev, deputy director at the Kazakh Institute of Oil and Gas.
Source:S&P Global Platts
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