China's gas demand will more than double by 2030, with the industrial sector, the largest energy user, taking 26-30% of total consumption by that time, a Chinese official said on October 31.
Liu Xiaoli, a professor at China's Energy Research Institute, said total gas demand would grow by 7.7-8.6% a year between 2015 and 2030, reaching 580-670 billion cubic meters in 12 years.
China recently decided to reduce air pollution, prompting a government-mandated switch to cleaner gas from coal for heating in parts of the country -- part of a so-called "Blue Sky" initiative. This has led to a spike in its gas consumption and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Liu said that 80 cities would be covered by the next phase of the "Blue Sky" initiative from 29 cities last year, covering a third of China's population and 40% of its gross domestic production.
While the industrial sector will be the biggest gas consumer in China by 2030, with a rise to 175 billion cubic meters from 72.7 billion cubic meters in 2017, the power sector will be the biggest growth driver, she said.
"The power sector will be the biggest contributor to incremental gas demand and newly incremental gas demand will be around 110 billion cubic meters in the future," she said.
Installed gas-fired power capacity will jump 44% between 2017-2020 to 110 GW from 76.3 GW and will more than triple to 250 GW by 2030.
Liu said China would no longer expand coal-fired power generation after 2020, while turning to thermal power generated by new gas-fired plants instead.
Meanwhile, she also underscored China's focus on developing its domestic gas reserves – 44% of its proven reserves were as yet undeveloped, with some 3.9 trillion cubic meters of gas remaining economically recoverable with current technologies.
Domestic gas production will increase to 170-200 billion cubic meters by 2020 and to 260-310 billion cubic meters by 2030, she said.
Sources:sxcoal
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